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January 2004 @ Microsoft
Scenario planning: Learning the "New Rules" for 2014
Video archives of this meeting can be found at the "VPortal" site courtesy of Altus Learning Systems
Most of us are so busy working day to day, attempting to keep up with changes and fighting for survival, that we don't often have a chance to look to the future. But to have any chance of making correct decisions, people must escape their comfort zones to contemplate a range of possible futures. The trick to scenario planning is to imagine yourself 10, 15, and 20 years hence and checking the lay of the land around you. The point is NOT to extrapolate from the present. Scenario thinking makes us look at the bigger picture, the futre of economies, government and countries, before drilling down to specific ares of concern such as eLearning. Tuesday demonstrated a tool you may decide to use in your own planning. We also collected attendees' insights into a specific set of eLearning scenarios. History of the Edinburgh Scenarios
In Fall 2003, Jonathan and others interviewed a panel of thought leaders from around the globe, among them:
Two critical uncertainties emerged from the discussions:
A working group spanning Scotland's e-Learning community explored and supplemented these views further and worked closely with the panel to develop what are now known as the Edinburgh Scenarios.
Jonathan took these four snapshots of the future back to the original panel members to assess their consistency, plausibility, and implications. At this point, Internet Time Group and Learning Circuits went online to engage as many people as possible in the dialog. January's eLearning Forum meeting was part of that effort. The Edinburgh Scenarios was a centerpiece of the eLearnintenational 2004 Summit in Edinburgh. A strategic aim of the 2004 Summit was to break down some of the silo thinking that has separated senior educators, technologists, government policy makers, and businesspeople, so all can benefit from the knowledge of others.
Jonathan Star's work at GBN focuses on scenario planning, futures research, business strategy, and public policy. He was the project and research director for the 2003 GBN Scenario Book, History in Motion, and has recently worked on scenario projects for clients in the telecommunications and IT industries. Jonathan is coordinating development of the "Edinburgh Scenarios," an exploration of the shape of eLearning ten years hence. eLearning visionary Jay Cross is often ahead of his time. In the late seventies, he set up off-campus distance-learning programs for universities and designed the University of Phoenix's first business degree program. He bought one of the first IBM PC's (and issue #1 of PC magazine.) He interviewed Cisco when it had only four employees. He remembers trying to use Windows 1.0. His website was up before Netscape came along. He coined the term eLearning. He has blogged and photo-blogged for years.
Global Business Network was founded in 1987 as a unique learning community based on ruthless curiosity, collaboration, and powerful new tools for thinking about and shaping the future. GBN's network spans the globe, blending strategic thinkers from leading companies in established and emerging industries; visionaries from the sciences, arts, business, and academia; and a community of practice engaged in innovating and transferring tools for scenario thinking and strategic action. Check these GBN Resources on Scenario Thinking
If you want to delve more deeply into the Edinburgh Scenarios, you might start here.
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