The economy is in the toilet. Businesses have retrenched. Orders are off. Start-ups are struggling for capital. What does this mean for eLearning? Where are major corporations spending their money? What's happening in various sectors of the market? What's the impact in Europe, Asia, and the Americas?

Eilif Trondsen reviewed recent research from SRI's Learning on Demand project that finds eLearning prospering in spite of high-tech's declines.

Jay Cross noted that BofA's Howard Block and Hambrecht's Trace Urdan also report relief that high-tech has not pulled eLearning along into the cellar. The stock-tracker at Internet Time shows that the major eLearning companies have declined 7.45% in 2001, hardly a crash. Our members painted a somewhat darker picture in our survey on the economy, probably reflecting the number of small companies and solo practitioneers.

We broke into two groups to discuss what vendors and their customers should do to weather today's chilly economic climate.

The Vendor group noted:

• Cross-sell existing customers. Consider mergers/partnerships.
• Consider going after verticals.
• Big guys have more options; their alliances in place
  Small - do custom, specific solutions. Go generic?
• Drop-out research required. Distraction. Need compelling experiences. Gaming?

The Customer group said it's vital to check the financial stability of your vendor. Also,

• Difficulty around parameters of ROI measurement.
• Proof of concept. Do ROI on a small segment?
• Customer education segment growing. Most has been ILT in the past.
• Separate the nice-to-have from need-to-have.
• Focus on real results of the total effort.
  

More info on this topic: An E-Learning Industry Update by Tom Barron.

2. eLearning Forum

Jay called for volunteers to help fulfill a vision of a global eLearning Forum networking with thousands around the globe. We have more than 400 members but our membership is out of balance. The Forum needs more customers, the people who use eLearning. Jeanne Nolan pointed out that often it's the line manager who can tell the real story from the customer side. Jay called on every member to approach at least one of their customers to participate in eLearning Forum.

Kate Gardner volunteered to be our Membership Secretary. Frank Peter volunteered to host our site; we'll probably take him up on it. Doug Nelson is looking into creating a member directory. Joe Jones will help us run remote meetings. Thanks to each of you.

Eilif reported on the debut meeting of our Washington, D.C., chapter and announced an October meeting with the European Community in Brussels.

3. Games

Clark Quinn asked us, "What do we do to get them to learn?" The answer: Games. How? Remove the dull bits and add challenge. Clark gave an example of injecting the spirit of gaming into learning. The topic was computer auditing. "About as much fun as watching paint dry," he said, but learners loved it when they became detectives searching for a computer crook. The engagement of games is extremely motivating.

Bob Martinez described Cisco's SiGaRo program. "SiGaRo" is shorthand for Simulations, Games, and Roleplays.

• A simulation is an imitation of a process content by representing that content apart from its physical reality.
• A game is a job-related contest to attain a clearly-sated goal; the specific outcome is not predetermined.
• A roleplay is a scenario-based environment for acting out key interaction perspectives.
  

SiGaRo is another step in Cisco's migration to a Learner-Centric environment.

4. ROI

Next up, Gary Latshaw shared findings of the eLearning Forum Task Force on ROI.

Among the viewpoints posted to the task force's Yahoo Groups discussion board was this structure from Barbara Hayes-Roth:

ROI Elements

1. Improve the learning experience More effective, engaging, personalized
2. Improve individual learner satisfaction Employee enrollment, completion, enthusiasm
3. Improve business-related learning outcomes Employee knowledge, performance, mobility, retention
4. Improve cost-effectiveness of learning investment Increase participation, achievement, outcomes; Decrease amortized cost =>
5. Improve employee-related contributions to bottom line

Peg Maddocks described how (and when) she evaluates metrics internally at Cisco. In her customary no-nonsense fashion, Peg declared that it's ridiculous to over-measure. You take the measure that gets the job done. For example, it costs about $1,000 per person to train around 5,000 account managers annually. Their average quota is $6,000,000. What more do you need to know?

Results of the July poll on eLearning & the Economy

Coming soon, Sharrin Bennett's graphic depiction of the meeting.

Peg Maddocks

Photos in this column by Bill Dahl.